29/03/2021
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Disruptions to Schooling and the Need for Recovery

Silvia Montoya, Director UNESCO Institute for Statistics and Martin Gustafssson, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (ReSEP), University of Stellenbosch

The 2020 learning losses equal the gains made in the last 20 years

Some numbers to retain:

  • 在许多发展中国家,在2019冠状病毒病暴发前,被认为是熟练儿童的比例每年增加两个百分点
  • COVID-19造成的学校中断造成的学习损失相当于过去20年取得的所有学习成果
  • 2020年后,1.01亿1至8年级的儿童和青少年将达不到最低水平
  • 教师和学习者之间每个月没有或很少接触,两个月的学习就失去了
  • Recovery could occur by 2024, 但前提是要通过补救和追赶战略对这项任务作出特别的努力.

这一流行病对儿童的影响是多方面的,对许多人来说是毁灭性的. Before the pandemic, the data suggested that learning proficiency was gradually improving, 尽管速度不够快,无法实现可持续发展目标4,即到2030年所有儿童和青少年在阅读和数学方面达到最低水平的目标. Yet was progress was occurring. 下载赌钱App手机版(UIS)的一份新报告(LINK to report)调查了与学校关闭相关的学习损失,并考虑了干预措施可以如何帮助儿童迎头赶上.

在许多发展中国家,被认为是精通的儿童的百分比正在增加 2 percentage points a year[1]. To provide an idea of the global trend, among the 130 million children of the age corresponding to Grade 3, only 73 million could read proficiently before the pandemic, but this was increasing by 700,000 a year. 与前一年的[2]相比,每年大约增加了70万名儿童熟练. And this is counting just one school grade. This was mainly because learning improved in schools, but to some extent better school participation rates played a role.

从COVID-19中恢复学习损失将取决于追赶战略

疫情带来了前所未有的学校停课规模. At the most serious point, around March and April 2020, around 95% of children were not attending school. It has been estimated that by early November, 全世界的学习者在2020年本应接受的接触教育中失去了41%至68%. 很难确定准确的数字,主要是因为学校重新开学后,许多学校只允许学生轮流上课.

有关学校中断对学习的影响的证据已经开始出现,并证实学习损失比人们从学校中断的时间可能预期的要大. 这主要是因为全球十大赌钱软件App知道,长时间的干扰会导致孩子忘记一些在干扰前学过的东西. The new UIS report, 与大流行病有关的学业中断和对学习熟练度指标的影响 uses a factor of two: for every month of contact schooling lost, about two months of learning have been lost. This is in fact what the emerging research points to.

Returning to the Grade 3 example, 2020年的学习损失可能会使熟练儿童的数量减少1300万. If one considers eight grades of primary and lower secondary school, 由于这一流行病,约有1.01亿儿童达不到最低熟练程度门槛. 这就相当于在过去20年里取得的熟练程度的提高.

不应该用20年的时间来恢复因大流行病而失去的知识, but it will nonetheless be a long and difficult process. The UIS report 发现回到大流行前的途径可能只有在2030年左右,即十年后. However, effective remediation can shorten this period. 经济复苏可能在2024年实现,但前提是要付出特别的努力.

经济困难、性别和区域因素也是辍学率的原因

Dropping out from school as a result of the pandemic, for instance due to economic hardships, will aggravate the problem of learning losses. 在这个阶段很难建立辍学的统计数据, 考虑到数据收集系统的中断,以及在父母暂时关心孩子的健康可能导致较低的出勤率的情况下,很难定义“辍学”.

而女孩和男孩也经历过类似的中断和学习损失, gender gaps which were worrying already before the pandemic, may have worsened. Before the pandemic, around 85 million children who should be in primary school, were not in school, and around 55% of out-of-school children were girls[4]. The evidence suggests dropping out would have been worst among girls. At the same time, the global pattern is that boys display less proficiency than girls, mainly because the learning gained in each grade is, on average, lower for boys[5]. 这种流行病的破坏很可能会扩大男孩和女孩之间的这种成绩差距.

世界各地对这一流行病的影响有着不同的感受. In sub-Saharan Africa the effects can appear to have been less severe. 大约有600万小学和初中的儿童没有达到最低熟练程度. 但是,这掩盖了一个事实,即即使在大流行之前,该区域大多数地区的学习熟练程度就特别低. In this region, 大部分的努力都需要用于帮助成绩远远低于标准的学习者, and at combatting the out-of-school problem.

In Central and Southern Asia, 低于最低水平的儿童人数似乎很多, at 34 million primary and lower secondary children. 在学前教育系统相对广泛的地区,这种水平将会被打破,导致在未来很长一段时间里,学生的熟练程度低于历史水平. This, 再加上2020年各年级学校停课严重, 这解释了为什么拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的复苏预计要比其他地区晚几年. 欧洲和北美的损失估计相对较低, 部分原因是几乎没有学习者达到国际熟练程度的门槛, meaning even with some falling behind, relatively few moved below the threshold.

Recovering from the pandemic, and returning to pre-pandemic pathways, will require work and resources, directed in particular at the most disadvantaged children. 这还需要更好地监测全世界儿童的学习水平. Even before the pandemic, the ability of many countries to gauge improvements in, for instance, reading proficiency over time, was weak. 这一大流行病增加了监测熟练程度趋势任务的紧迫性和新的复杂性.

References

How fast can levels of proficiency improve? Examining historical trends to inform SDG 4.1.1 scenarios UIS (2019)

Evidence-based projections and benchmarks for SDG Indicator 4.1.1 UIS (2020)

与大流行病有关的学业中断和对学习能力指标的影响:重点放在低年级 UIS (2021)

 

[1] UIS, 2019: 4.

[2] UIS, 2020: 20, 36, 48.

[3] UIS, 2021: Figure 12, Table 3.

[4] UIS.Stat.

[5] UIS, 2020: 39.

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